RBI Defers FY27 Forecasts to April Policy: Awaiting New Statistical Base Year Data

Market snapshot: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) concluded its February 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting by maintaining the status quo on the repo rate at 5.25%. While the markets anticipated a hold, the significant development was Governor Sanjay Malhotra's decision to delay official FY27 GDP and inflation forecasts until the April policy cycle, citing the imminent launch of revised national statistical series.

Summary: RBI keeps repo rate at 5.25% and postpones FY27 economic projections to April 2026 to incorporate a new base year for GDP and CPI data arriving next week.

Key Takeaways

• Repo rate remains unchanged at 5.25% with a 'Neutral' stance maintained.
• FY27 GDP and Inflation forecasts deferred to wait for new statistical series data expected on February 12, 2026.
• FY26 GDP growth estimate held at 7.4% while FY26 inflation is projected at a benign 2.1%.

SAHI Perspective

The RBI is transitioning from an aggressive easing cycle (125 bps cut over 12 months) to a period of data-dependent consolidation. By withholding FY27 forecasts, the central bank avoids providing guidance based on obsolete base years (2011-12), choosing instead to align its models with the upcoming 2022-23 base series. This 'tactical pause' reflects high institutional credibility and a refusal to speculate before structural shifts in consumption and manufacturing weights are quantified.

Closing Insight

Investors should focus on the February 12 data release of the new series, which will set the baseline for April's high-stakes policy meeting.

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