ONGC Navigates Geopolitical Frontiers: Strategic Plans to Unlock $950M in Trapped Overseas Assets

Market snapshot: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is signaling a robust recovery phase following its Q3 FY26 earnings call. While domestic performance remains steady, the focus has shifted toward its international arm, ONGC Videsh (OVL), and the potential resumption of operations in sanctions-hit regions like Russia and Venezuela. The company reported a consolidated net profit of ₹10,015.7 crore for the quarter ended December 2025, marking a 16.7% YoY increase despite flat revenue growth of 0.1%. Investors are particularly keen on the management's efforts to recover nearly $950 million in trapped funds across global jurisdictions.

Summary: ONGC is actively engaging with international regulators to resume operations in Russia and Venezuela while maintaining domestic growth through technical partnerships and a 15% OPEX reduction target.

Key Takeaways

• International Recovery: OVL is in talks with the US OFAC for sanctions waivers to resume operatorship in Venezuela's San Cristobal field.
• Stuck Capital: Approximately $350M is blocked in Russia and $600M in Venezuela; the company is seeking rouble-based payment channels and banking workarounds.
• Operational Efficiency: Management has initiated a 15% OPEX reduction program and engaged BP as a technical service provider for the Mumbai High field.
• Shareholder Rewards: A second interim dividend of ₹6.25 per share has been declared with a record date of February 18, 2026.

SAHI Perspective

ONGC’s pivot from a domestic-heavy E&P focus to a globally diversified strategy reflects a mature risk-appetite. By pursuing US licenses and alternative currency payments (roubles), ONGC is positioning itself to capitalize on high-potential assets that have been dormant. The lifting of force majeure in Mozambique and progress in the Sakhalin-1 transfer suggests that the 'geopolitical discount' on the stock may soon begin to narrow as these cash flows are unlocked.

Closing Insight

ONGC's resilience in navigating complex sanctions while delivering double-digit profit growth makes it a central pillar for India's energy security and a value play for dividend seekers.

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