Gold Resurges Past $5,000: Navigating the Intersection of Japanese Politics and US Macro Data

Market snapshot: Gold has reclaimed the critical $5,000 per ounce threshold, marking a decisive recovery following a period of extreme volatility that saw prices dip as low as $4,400. This resurgence is underpinned by a confluence of geopolitical and macroeconomic catalysts, primarily the landslide electoral victory of Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and a cooling US Dollar index (DXY) ahead of pivotal labor market releases.

Summary: Gold prices have stabilized above $5,000/oz as Japanese political stability and a weaker dollar attract buyers ahead of rescheduled US jobs and inflation reports.

Key Takeaways

• Japan's PM Sanae Takaichi secured a two-thirds supermajority, paving the way for a ¥21 trillion stimulus package.
• Gold outperformed the S&P 500 significantly in 2025 (65% vs 18%), establishing itself as a core portfolio asset rather than just a hedge.
• US Non-farm Payrolls and CPI data have been delayed to February 11 and 13 respectively due to a partial government shutdown, creating a temporary information vacuum.

SAHI Perspective

The current price action suggests that $5,000 has transitioned from a psychological barrier to a formidable support floor. Despite the recent 10% flash-crash in late January, the speed of institutional re-entry confirms that long-term sentiment remains bullish. We anticipate that persistent central bank diversification—forecasted to reach 800 tonnes this year—will continue to absorb any short-term supply shocks or margin-call sell-offs.

Closing Insight

As gold solidifies its position in the $5,000-$5,500 range, the focus shifts to the upcoming US jobs report to determine the Fed's next move in its easing cycle.

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